ss_blog_claim=a290fbfb2dabf576491bbfbeda3c15bc

Sunday, November 28, 2004

The Chinese (supposed) nonsense

SHANGHAI -- The long lunch-hour lines at this city's downtown Bank of China are filled with people who not long ago stuffed their accounts with U.S.
currency. Now they are dumping dollars.

Yuan Man, ticket No. 252 in line, has set aside more than $50,000 to support his son's dream to study in the U.S., but regrets not holding a stronger euro, or even a firm yen. Ron Chen, an Australian pharmaceutical executive, is paid monthly in dollars and converts each paycheck immediately into yuan . A middle-aged woman and her elderly mother sit nearby awaiting the arrival of an overseas wire transfer. They, too, plan to get rid of their dollars the same day.

"The dollar doesn't mean anything anymore," says the woman.

From black marketers to anxious grandmothers, Chinese have become disenchanted with the dollar. The selling has posed problems for Beijing as it tries to keep the yuan pegged to the dollar, adding to pressure China is getting from its trading partners to revalue its currency.

The selling also signals a startling shift that may have damaging implications for the dollar down the line: Many Chinese view the yuan , also called the renminbi, as the safer currency to hold.

"The U.S. dollar is weakening! The renminbi is the hard currency now!"
shouts a 40-year old man after pulling $10,000 out of U.S.-dollar-denominated stocks and plunking the sum into yuan deposits.
"It's the best choice," he says.


"This kind of fight between the eater and the eaten never goes so far that the predator causes extinction of the prey: a state of equilibrium is always established between them, endurable by both species.
What directly threatens the existence of an animal species is never the "eating enemy" but the competitors."

The lack of "prey" would be the lack of food and would mean subsequently the death warranty of the "predator".

Admitting the forwarded scenario, the Chinese would abandon the dollar, this would create a very strong alternative currency (let's think the Euro).
But this would sign their death warranty.
The Chinese more than the rest of the world rely their successful economy on exports, when the dollar will be too weak and the Americans too poor, when the Euro will be too strong and the European economy at the bottom: Where will they export?

What directly threatens the existence of an animal species is never the "eating enemy".
The Chinese know (or should know) too well the next scenario.

Patrizia from a World on IP

No comments:

 
ss_blog_claim=a290fbfb2dabf576491bbfbeda3c15bc