Predictions 2007-8-9...

Media is changing, because people are changing and they want different things.
Everything evolves in order to be always the same.
To catch the same number of customers or a little bit more a lot of fight must be done, new experiences, new technologies, new offers.
Technology is going fast, customers' tastes follow.
What will happen if they offered for years the same technologies?
The Market would slump as it does when the managers' choices do not rightly forecast the future, or better, if they are not able to impose on the customers what they want, or if the competition offers something better.

But in the near future the market will slump if they fail to offer what the customer really wants: to be a part of it, a part of the future.
Internet time can be slower than predicted, but it is certainly faster than what real world is used to and the number involved is certainly bigger.
Once the "Trend" used to begin in USA and then be spread to the rest of the world.
McDonald took decades to arrive to Europe, Napster just a few months.
In the future we could see exactly the opposite.
If the Pizza would have been an Internet product, it would have been widespread much sooner.

"This has profound implications for traditional business models in the media industry, which are based on aggregating large passive audiences and holding them captive during advertising interruptions. In the new-media era, audiences will occasionally be large, but often small, and usually tiny.With participatory media, the boundaries between audiences and creators become blurred and often invisible."
In a few words, people do not want to sit and look at and listen.
They want to "make the movies"
I see the serial of the future as a story which resembles more and more to a video game.
In which, when the main carachter has to make choices, it IS the viewer who decides in which direction.
It will be a movie with many endings, happy or sad.
It will be like a virtual life, the life you would like to live or you would like to try to live.
People would like to fly a plane or to climb mountains or to drive a Formula 1 car.
They cannot do it in reality. but the virtual reality will be so close to it.
What will change will be the surroundings, and they will be what we would like them to be.
Living in a dream or in a Fairy tale, or in the world we choose. Doing the things we would like to, but we are not able to...
This is what people want, and the one who will be able to offer the best version of it, will be the Media Producer of the future...