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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Should Italy leave the Euro?

Yes, she should and could live happily after...
"Italy, not Greece, is the country that has the strongest case for leaving the euro", says a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The Merrill Lynch (BAC) report has Italy tied with Ireland as the two countries with strong incentives to leave the euro.
Why Italy?
Because, like other countries that are suffering from being yoked to the strong euro currency, Italy would benefit from increased export competitiveness, Merrill says in its July 10 report.
And unlike some other troubled countries, Italy could probably stage a relatively orderly exit, the report says.
Its government is running a small primary surplus—that is, not counting interest payments.
A bigger challenge is that it has a significant current account deficit, which means that it needs a constant inflow of foreign capital to pay its bills.
But that could readily change, if the exports, that now are at almost 50% could boost the economy with a weak currency. Italy would become the China of Europe, but with much better quality products.
Of course, export-led growth is only one consideration for a country.
The most counterintuitive part of the analysis says that borrowing costs would fall for peripheral countries, especially Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, because the ability to print their own money would reassure markets that the likelihood of a default had fallen.
How many Ferraris would Italy sell if their price was in Lira, when the Mercedes and BMW were still in Euros? How much parmesan cheese?
Or designer clothes or furniture?
Or cruise ships?
Or shoes and gloves?
Or tiles and sanitary?
If we still had our Olivetti, ruined by that criminal of Debenedetti, we could be first in computers too...
But who says we wouldn’t be able to be again among the first?
O.K., if Italy has a relatively weak incentive to stay in the euro, could Germany bribe it to stay in, since Germany would suffer from an Italian exit?
That is exactly what they did with Monti...
This is the surprise for the new elections...
A Comic that could say "VERPISSEN" to the German brothers...
What would the fate of Eurozone be?
Herr Peerlusconi probably knows...
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