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Sunday, January 09, 2011

Dear Mr. Tarpley

I listened to your speeches for two days.
I was fascinated at first and then I began thinking...
You are right, the actual situation has two main faults:

1) Too many debts were created in too little time.

2) They were created for the wrong purpose.

I agree with your idea of "production capitalism".
What I do not agree with is your solution to go out of this situation.
First your view of a successful future based on productive investments doesn’t consider the possibility (and I am sure it could happen) that the "bad guys"( who are nothing else than main street guys) could take advantage of a hyperinflation as you picture.
We had a similar situation with Craxi in Italy.
The State made huge debts and invested in infrastructures, hospitals, roads etc.
That was good.
The bad side was that the, as we call them, "usual known guys", inflated the cost of everything (when the State pays, nothing is ever too expensive)and we made at that time the biggest debt of our history that was followed by the need of further debt.
The more you owe, the more you fall into debt.
Second, even if it was successful as you predict, it would be a bigger catastrophe than the one which originated it.
First your idea of interest rate zero is based on paper.
If your money is just paper, you can afford to lend it at the interest you choose.
If it is REAL money, then the more inflation you have, the more the money costs.
Your view is based on false premises:
1) you can print as many dollars as you like
2) you can pay oil and whatever you import with it, giving it the value you like.

Something like this could eventually work in an Autarchic state (Mussolini wanted something like this), but that means a State which can produce ALL what it consumes.
The moment you HAVE to import you HAVE to pay with a currency that is worth more than paper.
How long do you think the rest of the world is willing to believe the value you give to your currency?
You can also make wars and oblige the rest of the world to sell at the price you decide.
But how long do you think that the US can convince the rest of the world that they are the most powerful?
The last wars were not so successful and yes, you could use atomic bombs, but we are NOT talking about 1945, we are talking of 2011, when there are also OTHERS with the same weapons.
I do not think it would be a good idea to test who is the best, and I guess you agree.
Deflation is something nobody likes.
People do not like it, because it lowers their living standards, governments do not like it, because it lowers the number of votes.
But it is INEVITABLE.
Making new debts is deadly.
Because it strengthens the ideas of "enjoy today and pay tomorrow" and "tomorrow never comes".
It is rewarding the ones who make debts, who live with public money.
It lowers almost to zero the numbers of the ones who save and invest REAL MONEY.
Capitalism is based on Capital.
Real Capital, not printed paper.
You cannot solve a problem with the same means that created the problem.
The financial crisis was mostly made by people who thought that producing was not important.
People were convinced that the prices of the houses would have gone on forever, that the growth was unlimited.
That is at the base of making debts.
You buy today and sell tomorrow and live on the gains.
Just a stupid can believe in an infinite growth in a finite world.
At the end of the day, if there is no farmer, no baker, who makes the bread?
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