Saturday, January 15, 2011

The worst has yet to come

America had a financial crisis for 30 years; since 1970 people have been making money not through producing and selling, but through finance and when you talk about making money through finance basically you talk about speculation, inducing people to get into debts, because they need thing immediately.
The problem of debts is that they have to be paid back.
It is not a financial crisis, it is just the fourth or fifth bubble and it isn’t even the last, because the government responded with the "Stimulus plan" which is:
The Government gives money that they do not have, so that they can fix up their balance sheet.
Where do they get the money?
They borrow still more from other countries, they buy treasury bonds, and they just print money.
Us is not the only one to do so, but for US is easier because they are the Reserve Currency and no one can stop them doing so.
The end of the bubble hasn’t occurred yet, it is a couple of years down the line.
Then there will be a REAL crash.
Now, we are only seeing a minor crash, the worst has yet to come.
The last crisis will be a collapse of the US dollar, which will end it being the reserve currency, with a huge expanse of unemployment.
US hegemony is already over, it has been declining since 1970, had a catastrophic fall during the regimen of George W. Bush.
It is still going to be a powerful, rich country, it is not going to be Paraguay, but it will not be the dominant force in the world.
From "Indispensable Nation" will became "Dispensable".
Other countries will just ignore US, and that is what they are already doing.
Now there are eight or nine poles of significant power, but they are too many, so everybody is trying to link up with somebody else, so everybody is looking for the best alliance.
Take Russia for example.
It is certainly one of the eight poles, it is large in area and population, has got a fairly strong military, it has got economic resources.
Who is Russia going to link up with?
It is not clear.
Sometimes with China, sometimes with France and Germany, sometimes with South America... Russia is trying out alternative links. And it is not the only one.
We could say the same about Germany or Brazil.
So we are going to see a game going on for the next five or ten years.
May be ten years from now there won’t be ten poles, but two or three poles of power.
US is more likely to link up with the Asian pole than with the European Pole.
For several reasons, first of all because Europe would prefer that.
Since 1945 Europe has been living under a "cultural discomfort".
Before ww2 they were the elder brother of US both culturally and politically, after 1945 the US became the elder.
Western Europe has never liked that. They swallowed it, they had to live with it, not only in France where they showed it clearly, but also in Germany and even the UK.
The only way Europe can be Europe again, culturally, self sufficient, is to break with the US.
Right now US is trying to weaken Europe, to prevent it to go closer to Russia.
They played with Easter Europe where although there is still fear and hostility towards Russia,( they were Russia’s satellites for many years) they do not want to go under Russia again, but they do not want to be under Germany.
They still hope US is going to protect them.
But certainly that won’t be.
What will happen to the Arab world?
They will pursue their own interest, since US is losing wars, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Israeli are not going to win politically, they will just drive conclusions and they will pursue the Arab world´s interest, just like the US will purse its own interest. We cannot moralize.
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