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Tuesday, December 12, 2006

The "connected home".

The evolution of the connected home is of vital interest to much of the technology sector.
The convergence of telecom, computer, and consumer electronics offers players in these areas opportunities for expanding
their sales and influence.
There is an abiding, widely held, and damaging misconception that clouds people's thinking about communications, and
especially broadband.
Companies that continue to hold onto this myth risk losing the race to build the connected home.

Subscribers to this dogma regard the Internet as first-and-foremost a content delivery system.
It isn't. The Internet is primarily a tool for person-to-person communication.
But policymakers, investors, and telecommunications companies have too often fallen for the plausible slogan that 'content is king'.
What systems and equipment providers
as well as service providers in this area should worry about is giving people what they really want, which is to be connected to other people.

Content - material prepared by professionals for consumption by large audiences - undoubtedly plays a big part in consumers' lives.
Many businesses based on movies, book publishing, recorded music,
professional sports or news dissemination are large and prosperous.
And content is certainly a more glamorous business than providing 'dumb pipes'.
But the truth is, content has never been as essential to consumers or as economically vital as connectivity.

To put the comparison in perspective, the annual movie theater ticket sales in the U.S. are under $10 billion.
The telephone industry collects that much money every two weeks!

The primacy of connectivity over content explains why, on the Internet,it is email that is still the true 'killer app.'
Deliveringcontent to mobile phones via WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) has been a disappointment despite enormous industry hype and considerable marketing
efforts.
Providing pop videos or movie trailers for consumers to watch on 3G cellphones has provoked a similarly underwhelming reaction from
end users.
What does appear to be more popular in the new generations of cellphones is the ability to take pictures and send them to friends
and family, a typical connectivity application.
In the last few decades, with the development of cellular services, wireless transmission has started to move back to its
roots as a point-to-point communications service and the revenues from wireless telephony now far exceed those from radio broadcasting and are
even greater than those of radio and television combined.

Pure connectivity, in addition to attracting more revenues, also has additional advantages.
The proponents of the 'content is king' myth almost universally neglect to mention a key aspect of content, namely
that it is expensive to generate. The sports stars, reporters, singers,and Hollywood actors do not work for free. Hence even if revenues from
selling content are large, much of that will go to pay for content,not just for the network.
On the other hand, in the 'dumb pipes' model of voice telephony, wired and wireless alike, all the money stays with
the service provider.

Still, we mustn't take the argument that 'content is not king' too far.
All it says is that most of the money is in point-to-point communication.
It does not say that content does not dominate in volume of data: the argument is about value to customers, and not about volume. Equally,
that content is not king does not mean that content is unimportant in shaping political or social views.
But the entire content piece of the economy is not all that large, and its contribution to network costs is
much smaller than that of point-to-point communication.


Certainly, content can be profitable. Numerous media companies are doing very well.
Content can also be of value to a network, even aside from providing traffic for the network to carry.

Sociability has frequently been dismissed as idle gossip, and especially in the early days of the telephone, was actively discouraged.

Yet the most successful communication technologies, the mail and the telephone, reached their full potential only when they embraced
sociability and those 'useless calls' as one of their main attractions.
That seemingly idle chit-chat not only provided direct revenues, but it encouraged the diffusion of the corresponding technology, and made
it more useful for commercial and other applications.
Such social interaction frequently functions to grease the wheels of commerce.
What do these historical lessons tell us about the future?
It is worth remembering that the real communications success story of the 1990s, whether measured in terms of revenue growth or number of
subscribers, was not on the Internet at all.
And yet voice has not reached its full potential. Not only can it be
integrated with various other forms of communication, but even its basic quality can be enhanced.

Other substantial changes in thinking are needed, also driven by the need to make connectivity, and not content delivery, central. For instance, most
broadband access links, such as cable modem and DSL ones, are designed to be asymmetrical, with higher capacity on the link to the home than to the
network.
Why? Because the expectation has been that these connections will be used primarily to push content to the consumer. However, since
the consumer places much higher value on personal communication than on content, the case for symmetrical connections will grow far stronger
and we are seeing this already in Korea, for example.

In the connected home (and home office) we can expect a growing demand for real time multimedia traffic, for applications such as videoconferencing.
However, such applications are likely to be swamped by ordinary file transfers.
The dominant mode of operation is likely to be fast download to local storage, fast transfer to whatever display device one wishes to
use (often a mobile information appliance), and then playback.
That is already the model we see emerging with appliances such as Apple's iPod MP3 player for music and the TiVo digital video recorder for television.

The presence of huge local storage capacity in local PCs or cable TV set-top boxes will make it much more attractive to send content as
files, not as real time transmissions. Hard disk storage capacity is doubling each 12 to 18 months.
For residential users, pictures and especially video are the leading candidates for filling those disks.
Ease of use, lower cost, and instant gratification all stimulate use, and digital camera owners appear to be taking many more pictures than
they ever did with regular film. The same electronic technology that is producing better disks and processors is also producing better cameras.

What this suggests is that systems designed for video, for example, should provide an easy way for users to load, edit, and distribute the video clips they take.
In particular, no oppressive Digital Rights Management (DRM) schemes should be imposed that would interfere with such home generated material.
Even for commercial content, relatively permissive schemes that allow and encourage customers to take some of the commercial content and incorporate
it into their own creations are likely to be the most successful.

It should be kept in mind that the variety of information generated by users will be growing.
It is not just a matter of video clips of newborns or family picnics.
There will also be security monitoring (automatic cameras at the door), healthcare applications (checking up on
the elderly or infants, or keeping detailed records of heart function,for analysis by automated systems), as well as sensors worn during sports
play (to provide feedback on one's performance afterwards).
Those home systems will be most successful that can handle the greatest variety of such informal and individual information sources.
The chances are that the most important applications and services that emerge in the connected home will not originate with traditional service
providers. In spite of many attempts, the established service providers and their suppliers have an abysmal record in innovation in user services.
If anything, we should expect an even greater fraction of innovations to come from users at the edges of the network - just as email, the Web,
browsers, search engines, and peer-to-peer file-sharing did.
The variety of services will be growing, and the ranks of potential creators of those services will also be growing. It will require ever more knowledge of
what users need to take advantage of the growing opportunities, and we can't expect centralized organizations to be able to do it.
The Internet now carries and will continue to carry a spectrum of different types of service.
In the past, you had on the one hand content prepared for wide distribution, such as newspapers, books, concerts and
radio broadcasts. At the same time you also had one-to-one connectivity, such as the mail system or telegrams. Today we have a wealth of things
in between, such as weblogs, which might be read by only person, by nobody at all, or by millions of people.

Content has never been king, it is not king now, and is unlikely ever to be king.
At least what we define as content.

Liberally taken and inspired by Andrew Odlyzko.

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