Sustained reductions in family size in the context of peace and social progress-were first witnessed in late eighteenth- century Europe.
During the interwar period, a number of European states reported fertility patterns that, if continued, would lead to an eventual stabilization and indefinite population decline thereafter.
These low fertility regimens were entirely voluntary: heretofore, such low birth Rates had virtually always been attended by war, pestilence, famine, or disaster.
Europe experienced a baby boom after World War II, but low fertility has now returned with a vengeance.
There are no reliable methods for anticipating just how low fertility levels may sink, or how long low fertility may persist in various locales.
One consequence, however, is already clear: it will force a great aging of the populations affected.
All of the developed countries are already "graying."
A final surprise involves what we might call America's "demographic exceptionalism." The U.S. is the singular and major exception to the demographic rhythms characterizing virtually all other affluent Western states.
In Western Europe, total populations are anticipated to decline between 2000 and 2025, with a substantial shrinkage in the under-55 population and pronounced population aging.
In the U.S., overall population aging is much more moderate; the overall population is projected to increase, and a higher number of young people are expected in 2025 than today.
Part of this difference is attributable to a significant divergence in fertility patterns and partly in the availability of first class structures offering home and in vitro fertilization.
Randy S. Morris M.D. is a certified IVF specialist based in Chicago Illinois. Dr. Morris specializes in invitro fertilization, PCOS and PGD.
Although they are best known for their IVF and PGD programs, you will find that they offer much, much more.
They have In Vitro Fertilization Services ,Treatment of Recurrent Miscarriage,Treatment of Female Endocrine Problems,Treatment of Other Reproductive Problems,Reproductive Surgery,Ovulation Induction / Superovulation,Complete Diagnostic Testing,Radiology (X-ray) Services.
U.S.-Western Europe income differences are not tremendous. One might think that fertility would be higher in societies that devote more public resources to child support, but social welfare programs are far more generous in most of Western Europe than in the U.S.
So how can we explain this fertility discrepancy? Possibly it is a matter of attitudes and outlook. There are big revealed differences between Americans and Europeans regarding a number of important life values.
Attitudes about individualism, patriotism, and religiosity seem to separate Americans from much of the rest of the developed world.
While the rest of the developed areas gradually drop off the roster of the world's major population centers, the U.S. actually rises, from fourth largest in 1950 to third largest in 2000, which it is projected to remain in 2050 as well.
From a purely demographic standpoint, the U.S., virtually alone among developed nations, does not look set to be going off gently into the night.
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Friday, January 26, 2007
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