To attempt to study the market without studying man is as impossible as to study light without studying the eye.
"But yes, I did say that by 2020 the “free” internet model will be extinguished and confined to the heaps of history."
"There are more users on the (paid) mobile internet. There is no built-in payment mechanism on the fixed (free) internet (ie you have to use a credit card etc) but there is built-in payment on the mobile internet. And the users on the mobile internet are totally agreeable to paying for content, while on the free internet the content owners are beggars."
I wouldn't agree with the first point.
"There are more users (who pay for content) on the (paid) mobile internet.
But here comes the point:
"What is content, what is good content?"
How can he be so sure to know the Future?
To be able to predict the future you must consider parameters that he doesn't.
1) The Present
And very likely the future, at least the far future (because 2020 is very far for technology) won't be like the Present.
"Everything must change, so that everything is always the same"
What never changed and never will change is what goes under the name of "Human Nature".
History, at least the history of humanity was made by men and History ALWAYS repeats itself, because man always repeats himself (or herself in the case of women).
Mobile phones are very successful today, even too much and THAT is why in a very near future they will disappear, leaving the place to something "new" and "different".
They are not a necessity, they are not something you cannot live without.
They are a fashion and as a fashion someday, somebody will decide they are "OUT".
2) What is content? What is good content?
"Ask a toad what is beauty...he will answer that it is a female with two great round eyes coming out of her little head, a large flat mouth, a yellow belly and a brown back..."
Certainly very far from what WE would define beauty.
The same applies to "content".
That is a magic word, so magic that people haven't understood yet that there is nothing really free.
Even on the Internet.
And it looks like HE didn't understand it too.
That is a theory that works perfectly on the paper and doesn't in reality.
Because Human Nature is not "communist" in its substance.
All men think they are different, and as different, they want to prevail, and wanting to prevail kills the communist theory.
Besides, it even goes against the "Survival Instinct" which is the one that drives men's life, so not only is anachronistic, it is also against life.
Communism has very little to do with the Internet, I would see them as two opposite. (even if in both the word "free" has the same meaning "something to catch people and better fucking them")
"A robust, money and profits based, fully commercial internet is coming."
In that I agree.
But why should it be on a mobile phone?
In an Era where the tastes are getting so sophisticated, where a Plasma screen is getting obsolete even before becoming widespread, in an Era where the size of the screens is getting everyday bigger, because virtual reality will be the only real reality, DOES STILL SOMEBODY THINK that people will like to read a Blog, to watch a football game, to look at a movie, to listen to good music, on a small, lousy screen, with small lousy earphones?
Yes, the screens are getting better, the earphones are getting better, but at the same speed the OTHERS, the big, normal size, are.
Who is going to win?
Quality or NON Quality?
I bet on the first.
PS Virtual reality will be the only reality for many of us.
Isn't it better to enjoy it on a big screen, with the best Dolby surround, may be sipping a good drink?
And the content?
It is good WHAT you think is GOOD.