Tuesday, March 23, 2010

What is boiling in the Internet pot

Making predictions is a tough job.
I always say the best predictions (and the most accurate) are the ones made AFTER the event took place.
All the others are speculations.
Nevertheless, I also say: if you want to know the future look at the past.
So, if we look at the past we can easily see that the most successful usage of the Internet and the other networks was as "plain, dumb pipes"
What was the unexpected huge success of the last years? The cell phone.
And it is exactly the opposite of what many would have predicted as successful, it is a narrowband network and not a broadband network.
That means what mostly matters is actually the use you can do with a network and its cost.
"When people talk to us about others they are usually dull.
When they talk to us about themselves they are nearly always interesting, and if one could shut them up, when they become wearisome, as easily as one can shut up a book of which one has grown wearied, they would be perfect absolutely."
That was Oscar Wilde, more than one hundred years ago.
He didn’t know anything about cell phones, but he knew human nature.
If asked, he would have probably predicted a huge future for a device you could use to talk about yourself.

Coming back to my predictions, I do not see that huge future of Internet as a device to broadcast movies or usual content as IPTV.
For that we still have a wonderful device called TV.
What could make the Internet a huge success would be the "personal" use of the Internet as IPTV.
Broadcast yourself.
That could be a winning future for the Internet over classic TV.
The Internet would be just "dumb pipes" to transport the creative product of the user.

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