Wednesday, September 09, 2009

About Bubbles

Greenspan was (and is) simply wrong. Bubbles are easy to predict. Most people will ignore the prediction but that doesn't save their pot-o'-gold. From what I have read, Krugman follows Greenspan on the topic. He is wrong also.

A leading modern proponent of Schumpeter's approach is Carlota Perez. Being Venezuealan and working in the UK, perhaps she doesn't care so much about winning prizes.

In her 2002 book "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital" and follow-on essays, she correctly identified the Internet Bubble as the latest in a series of similiar cyclical events over 200 years and predicted that another more severe collapse was coming to "complete" the pattern. She was right. Krugman etal were wrong.

Perhaps the crucial news from this -- apart from being able to skip Krugman columns -- is that we are now entering the *inevitable* next phase in global industrial development. Carlota calls it Synergy.

She's correct and there is much we can learn from studying her work.

Mark Stahlman
New York City

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