Friday, March 23, 2007

Future of Broadband

My prediction:

The "world wide mesh" will arrive in Asia about 2019, and in the U.S. in about 2039, due to frenetic lobbying and regulatory manipulation by incumbent telco oligopoly components eager to avoid having their existing revenue streams undermined.

In 2019, the average Asian "broadband" connection will exceed 100 mpbs, and the average American "broadband" connection won't exceed 10 mpbs... and 5-10% of the American public will still dialing into the 'net at 56kbps via POTS lines.

Given that, in 1999, an aunt of mine in Missouri was still connecting to the world via a party line that required operator assistance to place a long distance telephone call (I discovered this when attempting to dial into my server during an emergency), I don't feel I'm being particularly pessimistic.


I do not know about Italy, but I am sure I am not pessimistic saying that broadband will be on the verge of disappearing when we will able to see it in remote places in Italy like Trofarello (200.000 people)

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